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Prediction for CME (2024-01-23T07:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-01-23T07:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28762/-1
CME Note: Visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Not visible in STEREO A COR2 until 2024-01-23T12:09Z due to a data gap. The candidate source may be from AR 3561 (approx. S15W35), which had a C9.6 class flare peaking at 2024-01-23T07:00Z as seen in SDO AIA 131. Brightening and opening field lines can also be seen in SDO AIA 171/193. There is no clear arrival signature for this CME in solar wind data at L1.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-26T11:27Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-01-23 13:17
 - Time at C2: 2024-01-23 07:24
 - Radial speed: 577.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 37 deg
 - Eruption location: S33W35
 Inferences:
   - Associated flare: C9.6 (S19W35). Peak at 2024-01-23 06:45
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 523.75 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-01-26 11:27 (i.e. predicted transit time: 76.07 hours)
Lead Time: 28.00 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2024-01-25T07:27Z
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